Escalation triggers price spike

Oil markets reacted sharply when fresh reports of mutual strikes between the US and Iran reached traders on Friday. According to the Financial Times, Brent crude climbed roughly one percent to $78.80 per barrel, driven by fears that the ongoing hostilities could disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most strategically sensitive maritime passages. Around 20 percent of global oil transport volume moves through this narrow strait between Iran and Oman, and any threat to free passage immediately sets commodity costs in motion.

The Strait of Hormuz is the key to global oil prices — and Iran holds the key to Hormuz.
Oil prices jump as US-Iran tensions escalate - Bilde 1

Background: The Hormuz crisis is nothing new in 2026

This is not the first time this year that the conflict has put oil markets under pressure. Earlier in 2026 — between February 23 and March 18 — Brent crude surged by as much as 46 percent, from $69 to over $104 per barrel, as a result of supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, according to market data compiled by 24markets.

That move was more dramatic and prolonged. The current jump of around one percent is more contained, but traders are on alert: if the violence escalates further, the market could reprice rapidly.

+46%
Brent crude gain (Feb–Mar 2026)
$78.80
Brent crude today (USD/barrel)
Oil prices jump as US-Iran tensions escalate - Bilde 2

Crypto markets follow downward — not upward

Contrary to the notion of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical turmoil, leading cryptocurrencies fell in the wake of the latest strikes. Bitcoin dropped below $62,000, losing 3.3 percent over 24 hours, while Ethereum fell 4.2 percent to around $1,700, according to market data cited in research compiled by 24markets.

This pattern is consistent with what the IMF has documented: during risk-off episodes, crypto assets tend to correlate with risk assets broadly, rather than acting as an independent buffer.

Expert views are divided

Analysts disagree on what the oil-crypto dynamic actually tells us. Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC trading at Wintermute, has previously highlighted crypto's 24/7 liquidity as a tactical advantage: during periods when traditional markets are closed and geopolitical unrest erupts, Bitcoin has functioned as "the most liquid available asset" for traders seeking to position themselves.

Sidharth Sogani Jain, CEO of Blue Aster Capital, draws a distinction between the asset classes' functions: crude oil is the immediate indicator, gold is the medium-term signal, while Bitcoin is what he describes as a long-term hedge against dollar devaluation and sovereign debt — not a short-term buffer against oil shocks.

These perspectives cannot be verified as absolute truths, but they reflect a genuine debate in the market.

What happens next?

With the Fear & Greed Index at 26 out of 100 — firmly in "extreme fear" territory — and Bitcoin already down around 20 percent year-to-date from peak levels near $93,000 in January, market sentiment is fragile. Further escalation in the Persian Gulf will likely push oil prices higher, and could amplify the current risk-off dynamic across asset classes.

For Norwegian investors and market participants with exposure to the energy sector, the situation is worth monitoring closely — particularly given that the Norwegian continental shelf and OSEBX energy stocks typically correlate positively with Brent crude during sustained price rallies.