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Wood sets new record Bitcoin forecast
Cathie Wood, CEO of US fund manager ARK Invest, has once again revised her long-term Bitcoin price target upward. According to Nasdaq, Wood now puts her bull case at $1.25 million by 2030 — up from the $1 million target she popularized in 2023. The base case scenario stands at $750,000.
ARK Invest's "Big Ideas 2026" report estimates that Bitcoin's market capitalization will grow from around $2 trillion today to nearly $16 trillion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 63 percent.
Institutions buying the dips
ARK's own data for the first quarter of 2026 reveals a notable trend: what the firm calls "conviction buyers" — institutions and ETF holders — increased their combined Bitcoin positions by 69 percent, from approximately 2.13 million BTC to 3.60 million BTC over the course of the quarter. ARK interprets this as a structural shift in ownership, with institutional players systematically accumulating Bitcoin during price declines.
When Bitcoin fell below $80,000 in February 2026, ARK Invest itself reportedly invested around $72 million in crypto-related equities. The ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) held 33,337.9 BTC as of May 22, 2026.
Significant divergence among analysts
Wood's forecast is among the most optimistic in the industry, but she is far from alone in her long-term bullish view. Standard Chartered has estimated Bitcoin at $500,000 by 2030 in research notes, while analysis firm Bernstein is targeting $200,000 by the end of 2025. Goldman Sachs' digital assets team is said to see potential for close to $200,000 by 2026, contingent on favorable regulation and continued ETF inflows.
At the other end of the spectrum, Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence has warned of a possible decline toward $28,000 based on historical price distribution. Fidelity strategist Jurrien Timmer suggests that 2026 could be a "rest year" for Bitcoin, with support levels between $65,000 and $75,000.
AI models offer no clear consensus either: DeepSeek estimates $50,000 by the end of 2026, KIMI AI puts it at $92,000, while Grok 4.3 points to $145,000.
Risk-off sentiment dominates the market now
Despite the sweeping long-term forecasts, it is worth noting that as of May 31, 2026, the market is in a clearly defensive phase. Bitcoin is trading around $73,399, and the Fear & Greed Index stands at 28 out of 100 — firmly in "fear" territory. Wood herself has stated that she believes Bitcoin is approaching the end of its current downturn cycle, and expects levels around $80,000–$90,000 to hold as support.
Investors should note that even bulls like Wood have revised their estimates downward along the way — the bull case target was actually lowered from $1.5 million to $1.25 million in November 2025, partly due to the growing role of stablecoins in emerging markets. All forecasts in this market carry significant uncertainty, and historical predictions from prominent voices have regularly proven to miss badly on timing.
Sources: Nasdaq/ARK Invest Big Ideas 2026, Standard Chartered research, Bernstein research, Bloomberg Intelligence, Goldman Sachs digital assets team.
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